What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Chiba and 2.2 from Gamba Osaka, so Gamba Osaka come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Chiba come into this on four straight defeats. Gamba Osaka come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Gamba Osaka to win. Gamba Osaka shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-2.2), and we make them about 58% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.20, which works out at about 45 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Chiba to spoil this. We only make this about 58%, so it's far from a lock.
