How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Over 1.5 goals 63%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Cerezo Osaka and 0.8 from Verdy, so Cerezo Osaka come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Verdy come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.2 goals (xG 1.4-0.8), and two is enough to land it, landing about 65% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Cerezo Osaka have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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