How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Kawasaki Frontale to win 53%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Kawasaki Frontale and 1.0 from Shimizu S-Pulse, so Kawasaki Frontale come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Kawasaki Frontale to win. Kawasaki Frontale are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.0), and we make them about 55% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.90, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Kawasaki Frontale have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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