What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Vissel Kobe and 0.8 from V-Varen Nagasaki, so Vissel Kobe come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.8-0.8), and two is enough to land it, landing about 70% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
If one side settles for what they have, or the game turns cagey, the goals can dry up in a hurry. The price is shorter than our own read of about 70%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
