How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Ath Madrid or Draw 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Alaves and 1.5 from Ath Madrid, so Ath Madrid come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Alaves come into this on two straight draws. Ath Madrid come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Ath Madrid or Draw. This covers Ath Madrid or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.23, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Ath Madrid have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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