How it turned out
We projected about 3.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Real Madrid to win 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from Real Madrid and 1.2 from Villarreal, so Real Madrid come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Villarreal come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Real Madrid to win. Real Madrid are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-1.2), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Real Madrid have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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