Vallecano v Ath Bilbao prediction

What to expect

Vallecano host Athletic Bilbao at the Vallecas ground on 10 October. Vallecano sit 13th in La Liga with eight points from seven games and a goal difference of minus five. One place above them, Getafe are just a point ahead, while Osasuna sit just below with the same points. Both clubs have scored 73 out of 100 chances to find the net this season, and the expected total of 2.5 goals suggests a tight contest. The price of 1.45 for an Athletic Bilbao win or a draw matches our reading of the balance of the game.

Vallecano’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight matches they have won two, drawn two and lost four. The most recent results are a 1-1 draw away at Osasuna, a 2-1 home win over Español, a 4-1 defeat away to Real Madrid, a 3-2 home victory over Santander, a 5-2 loss away to Barcelona and a 1-1 home draw with Alavés. In those eight games Vallecano have scored eleven goals and let in seventeen, failing to score only once. Their last three home games have been unbeaten – two wins and a draw – showing they can be solid at home.

Athletic Bilbao have also been inconsistent. Over their last eight fixtures they have recorded two wins, three draws and three defeats. Their latest outings are a 0-0 home draw with Alavés, a 1-1 home draw with Elche, a 3-0 home win over Atlético Madrid, a 2-0 away win at Celta, a 2-0 loss away to Barcelona and a 3-1 home defeat by Sevilla. In this run they have scored ten and conceded eleven, keeping three clean sheets while failing to score in two matches. On the road they have one win and two losses in their last three trips, and they arrive in Madrid after two consecutive draws.

The two sides have met five times before. Athletic Bilbao have won four of those meetings and one ended in a draw, with an average of 2.2 goals per game. The most recent encounter was a 1-1 draw on 28 February 2026. Given the history of close scorelines and both teams’ similar chances of scoring, we expect another low-scoring affair with both sides likely to find the net but not dominate.

Our pick is Athletic Bilbao or a draw at 1.45. The price is close to what we think the game will look like and gives a safety net if the match ends level. For the pick to fail, Vallecano would need to win outright, which would require them to improve their away-against-strong-opponents record and keep a clean sheet – something they have struggled with in recent defeats. We see a 67 % chance of this outcome holding.