What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Vallecano and 1.2 from Ath Bilbao, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.3-1.2), and we make both teams to score about 57%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Vallecano have won two of their last five.
✓Ath Bilbao have won two of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
28 Feb 2026Vallecano 1 - 1 Ath Bilbao
25 Aug 2025Ath Bilbao 1 - 0 Vallecano
13 Apr 2025Ath Bilbao 3 - 1 Vallecano
1 Dec 2024Vallecano 1 - 2 Ath Bilbao
25 May 2024Vallecano 0 - 1 Ath Bilbao
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