Malaga v Espanol: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Malaga to score 1 or fewer 74%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.0 goals from Malaga and 1.3 from Espanol, so Espanol come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Malaga come into this on two straight defeats. Espanol come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Malaga to score 1 or fewer. This is about Malaga's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 74%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.