Auda v Grobiņa: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.9 goals from Auda and 0.6 from Grobiņa, so Auda come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Auda come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Auda to win. Auda are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.6), and we make them about 73% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.