How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made FK Jelgava to win 43%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from FK Jelgava and 1.0 from SK Super Nova, so FK Jelgava come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: FK Jelgava to win. FK Jelgava are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.0), and we make them about 45% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 43 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.89, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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