How it turned out
We projected about 3.7 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made FK Tukums 2000 to win 57%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from FK Tukums 2000 and 1.3 from Ogre United, so FK Tukums 2000 come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FK Tukums 2000 to win. FK Tukums 2000 are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-1.3), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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