What to expect
We expect about 2.4 goals from FK Tukums 2000 and 1.3 from Ogre United, so FK Tukums 2000 come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FK Tukums 2000 to win. FK Tukums 2000 are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-1.3), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.74, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Ogre United only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 58% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
