What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Leicester and 0.9 from Burton, so Leicester come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.3 goals in total (xG 1.4-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 56%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. We only make this about 56%, so it's far from a lock.
