How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Luton to win 54%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Luton and 1.1 from Notts County, so Luton come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Luton come into this on four straight wins. Notts County come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Luton to win. Luton are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.1), and we make them about 55% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.66, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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