What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Stevenage and 1.0 from Oxford, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.1 goals in total (xG 1.1-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 79%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. We make it about 79% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
