What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Bristol Rovers and 1.0 from Exeter, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Bristol Rovers come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 1.8 goals (xG 0.8-1.0), and three is enough to land it, landing about 49% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.70, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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