Bristol Rovers v Exeter: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 1.6 goals and the game finished with 1. We made Bristol Rovers or Draw 69%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Bristol Rovers host Exeter in a League Two clash on 26 September 2026. Rovers sit sixth in the table with 12 points from seven games and a +1 goal difference, just one place above York City and level on points with Cheltenham Town. Exeter are down in 20th place, also on six points but with a –1 goal difference, level with both Newport County above them and Accrington Stanley below. Both teams are fighting for survival or a push for the play-offs, so the three points are valuable for each side.

Rovers have been inconsistent in their last eight outings, winning four, drawing one and losing three. Their most recent games have been a 3-0 loss away to Gillingham, a 2-0 defeat away at Grimsby and a 1-0 home win over Rotherham. Before those they beat Colchester 2-0 at home, crawled past Crawley Town 2-0 away and produced a thrilling 5-3 victory over Newport County at home. In their last three home matches they have won every game, scoring 8 and conceding just 2, keeping three clean sheets while failing to find the net twice in the eight-game run.

Exeter’s form over the same period has been poorer. They have recorded one win, three draws and four defeats. Their latest result was a 0-0 draw at home with Tranmere, preceded by a 1-0 loss away to Port Vale and another 0-0 stalemate at home against Walsall. Before that they drew 1-1 with Barnet at home, lost 2-1 away to York and secured a 2-0 home win over Accrington. The last three trips have all ended in defeat. In eight games they have scored five and let in seven, keeping three clean sheets but failing to score in four matches.

When the two clubs meet, the games have usually been busy. In the last five meetings Rovers have won four times and Exeter once, with an average of just over three goals per match. The most recent encounter, on 12 April 2025, ended 2-1 to Exeter after Rovers took the lead. Given the recent low-scoring trend for both sides – Rovers have kept three clean sheets and failed to score twice, Exeter have kept three clean sheets and failed to score four times – this fixture is likely to be tight and could see few goals.

We back Bristol Rovers or a draw at 1.19. The price is shorter than we feel the game deserves, giving us a safety net if the match ends level. Both teams have a similar chance of scoring, around 55-58 per cent, but the expected total is only 1.6 goals, indicating a low-scoring affair. If Rovers manage to hold Exeter scoreless or keep the game to a single goal, our pick should succeed. It would go wrong only if both sides find the net twice, turning the match into a high-scoring contest, which the recent data does not support.