Fleetwood Town v Rochdale: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Rochdale to score 1 or fewer 77%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Fleetwood Town host Rochdale at home in an EFL League Two clash on 26 September 2026. Fleetwood sit 11th in the 24-team table with ten points from seven games and a +1 goal difference. They are level on points with the teams directly above and below them – Tranmere Rovers and Salford City – so a win would lift them clear of the immediate neighbours. Rochdale are down in 17th place with seven points from the same number of matches and a –3 goal difference. They sit just above Shrewsbury Town and just below Oldham Athletic, so a positive result would give them a little breathing space near the bottom. Both sides are close on points to the teams around them, making every point valuable for their respective positions.

Fleetwood’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight games they have won two, drawn four and lost two. The most recent results were a 1-0 loss away at Oldham Athletic, followed by a 3-1 defeat away to Barnet. Before those defeats they beat Sheffield United 1-0 at home, drew 1-1 away at Newport County, won 2-0 at home against Shrewsbury, and drew 1-1 at home with Oldham. In those eight matches they have scored eight goals and conceded eight, keeping three clean sheets while failing to find the net in two games. At home they have been unbeaten in four fixtures, winning two and drawing two.

Rochdale’s eight-game run has been less encouraging. They have recorded two wins, two draws and four losses. Their latest fixtures were a 2-0 home win over Oldham, a 0-0 away draw with Walsall, a 4-1 home loss to Gillingham, and a 3-0 home victory over Shrewsbury. Before that they lost 1-0 away at Colchester and fell 2-1 at home to Crawley Town. In total they have scored eight goals and let in eleven, keeping three clean sheets but also failing to score in three matches. Their recent away form is poor, with no wins in the last three trips, drawing once and losing twice. They played their last game seven days ago.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to produce a fair amount of goals, with both sides finding the net in most encounters. Given Fleetwood’s ability to score and Rochdale’s recent struggles to put goals past opponents, we expect a low-scoring affair. Fleetwood are the stronger side on the numbers, and they have a high chance of scoring at least once. Rochdale, however, have shown they can be shut out, especially away from home. The pattern suggests a game where Fleetwood may find the net while Rochdale are likely to keep their tally low.

Our pick is that Rochdale will score one goal or fewer. The price of 1.32 matches our view of the game. We think there is a 77 % chance this will happen because Rochdale have struggled to score on the road and have kept clean sheets in only three of their recent eight games. For the pick to fail, Rochdale would need to find the net twice, which would require a sudden improvement in their away attacking form. As it stands, the odds look right and the expectation is that Rochdale will stay under two goals.