How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Cheltenham to score 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Cheltenham host Chesterfield at their ground in the EFL League Two on 26 September 2026. Cheltenham sit fifth in the 24-team table with 12 points from seven games and a +3 goal difference. One place above them sits Gillingham, level on points, while Bristol Rovers sit just below, also level on points. Chesterfield are eighth, on 11 points and a +2 goal difference, with York City a spot ahead and Crewe Alexandra a spot behind, both on the same points. Both clubs are fighting for the promotion places, so a win or even a draw could move either side up the table.
Cheltenham’s recent form shows a mixed but unbeaten run. In their last eight matches they have won three, drawn three and lost two. The most recent results are a 1-1 draw away at Colchester, a 3-1 away win over Crawley Town, a 2-2 home draw with Grimsby, a 3-2 home win over York, a 2-2 away draw with Barnet and a 2-1 loss away to Swindon. They have not lost in their last five games. At home in the last four fixtures they have won two, drawn one and lost one. In those eight games they have scored 15 and let in 15, and seven of the matches featured three or more goals with both sides scoring in each game.
Chesterfield arrive on the back of two straight victories. In their last eight outings they have won four, drawn two and lost two. Their recent results are a 2-0 home win over York, a 2-1 away win at Oldham, a 3-3 home draw with Barnet, a 1-1 home draw with Gillingham, a 2-1 away loss to Rotherham and a 1-0 away win at Salford. On the road in the last four games they have won three and lost one. They have scored 12 and conceded 9 in those eight matches, keeping two clean sheets and failing to score only once. Their most recent game was a 2-0 win at home over York, a solid performance that gave them confidence heading into this trip.
The two sides have met four times before. Cheltenham have won once, Chesterfield twice and one game ended in a draw. Those meetings have produced an average of 1.5 goals per game, indicating low-scoring affairs. The most recent encounter was on 3 April 2026 when Chesterfield beat Cheltenham 1-0. Given the low scoring history and the fact that both teams have been involved in many games with both sides finding the net, we can expect another tight contest with few chances.
Our pick is Cheltenham to score. We expect Cheltenham to find the net about 75% of the time, which matches the price of 1.30 that is on offer. The price sits close to our own reading of the game. For the pick to fail, Cheltenham would have to be shut out, which would require a very tight defensive display from Chesterfield, something that has not been common in their recent games. If Cheltenham manage even a single goal, the bet wins, and the price looks good for that likelihood.
Recent results
Chesterfield have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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