What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Newport County and 1.7 from Grimsby, so Grimsby come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Newport County come into this on two straight draws. Grimsby come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.9 goals between the two (xG 1.2-1.7), landing about 53% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.77, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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