How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Grimsby or Draw 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Newport County and 1.7 from Grimsby, so Grimsby come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Grimsby or Draw. This covers Grimsby or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.23, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Grimsby have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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