Exeter v Barnet: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 55%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

The game looks very even. Our goal expectations are 1.2 for Exeter and 1.3 for Barnet, which means the total is about 2.5 goals. There is almost nothing separating the two sides on those numbers, so we expect a tight match rather than a free-flowing affair.

Both clubs have shown they can find the net regularly, averaging just over a goal each per game. When they have met before, the scores have tended to be close and both teams have usually hit the target. That pattern fits the numbers we have now – each side is likely to get a goal.

We pick both teams to score. Each side is scoring around one goal a game, and the chance of both finding the net is about 55 %. The price of 1.57 is a little shorter than our view, which makes it an attractive offer for us.

The pick would fail if one side manages a clean sheet. That could happen if a defense steps up or the attack stalls. Our view is fairly strong – we see a better than even chance of both sides scoring, but we recognise a shut-out would overturn the selection.