What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Gillingham and 1.1 from Northampton, so Northampton come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.0 goals in total (xG 0.9-1.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 63%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. At around 63% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
