How it turned out
We projected about 1.8 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 80%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Gillingham and 1.0 from Northampton, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 1.8 goals in total (xG 0.9-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 82%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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