What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Grimsby and 1.0 from Fleetwood Town, so Grimsby come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Grimsby to win. Grimsby are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.0), and we make them about 52% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 52 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.85, which works out at about 54 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Fleetwood Town only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 52% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
