How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 52%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Grimsby and 0.9 from Fleetwood Town, so Grimsby come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.4 goals in total (xG 1.4-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 55%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 52 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.81, which works out at about 55 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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