How it turned out
We projected about 1.8 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Northampton look the stronger side in this EFL League Two clash. The numbers we have suggest they will average just over one goal, while Crawley Town will be under a goal. That means both teams are likely to be cautious, and the match should stay tight and low-scoring.
Both clubs have not shown many goals lately, and when they have met before the games have tended to be quiet affairs. The recent patterns point to a modest total, with neither side likely to break away with a big scoreline. This history fits the expectation of a tight encounter.
We are backing the Under 3.5 goals option. The price of 1.38 looks good to us, especially since the game feels like a cagey one-goal-to-half-goal affair. Our thinking is simple: about 1.8 goals are expected, which means the total will stay under three-and-a-half most of the time. The chance of this happening is around 79 out of 100.
For the pick to fail we would need to see a sudden burst of attacking intent from either side, or a defensive lapse that leads to several goals. That seems unlikely given the low expectations. We are fairly confident in our view and feel the risk of a higher-scoring game is small.
Recent results
Northampton have won three of the last five meetings.
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