What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Port Vale and 0.7 from Northampton, so Port Vale come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.6 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Northampton come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Northampton to score 1 or fewer. This is about Northampton's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.7 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 76%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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