Rochdale v Shrewsbury: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Under 3.5 goals 74%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.1 goals from Rochdale and 1.1 from Shrewsbury, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Rochdale come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.4 goals in total (xG 1.2-1.2), keeping it under more often than not (about 76%). Clear chances should be at a premium.

We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.