What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Salford and 1.0 from Newport County, so Salford come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Salford come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Salford to win. Salford are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.0), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.55, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Newport County to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 59%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
