Salford v Newport County: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Salford to win 56%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Salford look the stronger side on paper. The numbers give them about 1.7 goals on average while Newport County sit around 1.0. That gap suggests Salford will have the edge, but both teams are likely to find the net at least once, pushing the total close to three goals. Expect a game with a few chances on each end rather than a defensive slog.

We back Salford to win. The price on offer is 1.54, which is shorter than what we feel the game is worth. Our own view puts Salford’s chance of coming out on top at roughly 56 %. With that edge, taking the home side to finish ahead looks the cleaner play compared with looking for a bigger payout elsewhere.

For the pick to go wrong, Newport would need to keep Salford quiet and grab an early lead. A missed chance or two from Salford could swing momentum, and a solid defensive stand from Newport would make the result tighter. We still feel confident in our view, but we recognise a slip-up from Salford or a surprise burst from Newport would change the picture.