How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Colchester to score 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Shrewsbury and 1.2 from Colchester, so Colchester come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Colchester to score. This is about Colchester's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.3 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Colchester have won two of the last two meetings.
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