What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Swindon and 1.2 from Accrington, so Swindon come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Swindon come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.0 goals between the two (xG 1.8-1.2), landing about 57% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.63, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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