How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Swindon or Draw 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Swindon and 1.1 from Accrington, so Swindon come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Swindon come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Swindon or Draw. This covers Swindon or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Accrington have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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