How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Swindon look a little stronger than Port Vale on paper, with an expected 1.3 goals for Swindon against 1.1 for Vale. The numbers suggest a tight match rather than a free-flowing affair. Both sides are likely to keep things compact and look for the occasional chance, so we expect a game that stays close and does not open up into a goal-fest.
Recent outings have shown both clubs scoring just over a goal a game, and when they have met before the total has usually hovered around the low-to-mid range. That pattern fits the expectation of about 2.3 goals combined for this meeting. The trend points to another low-scoring encounter rather than a high-octane shoot-out.
We are backing the Under 3.5 goals. The price of 1.29 is shorter than we feel the game deserves, which makes the bet look attractive. With a 72% chance of staying under that total, the odds give us a good return for a result we think is likely.
For the pick to fail, both teams would need to find the net more often than usual – perhaps a sudden burst of attacking play or a defensive lapse. That would have to happen for the total to jump above three and a half. We are fairly confident in our view, but we know football can be unpredictable, so we keep the stance moderate.
Recent results
Port Vale have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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