What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Swindon and 1.1 from Port Vale, so Swindon come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Port Vale come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.5 goals (xG 1.4-1.1) and it takes three to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 53%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.74, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. The price is shorter than our own read of about 53%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
