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Football/Liga MX/Atlante v Monterrey
Liga MX · Estadio Azteca

Atlante v Monterrey prediction

Atlante crestAtlanteLDDLD
v
Monterrey crestMonterreyWLLDW

What to expect

We expect about 1.3 goals from Atlante and 1.4 from Monterrey, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Monterrey to score 2 or fewer. This is about Monterrey's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.4 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 83%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 83 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.

What the numbers say
Atlante have not won any of their last five.
Monterrey have won two of their last five.
Three of the last four meetings had three goals or more.
Both teams scored in four of the last four meetings.

Recent meetings

30 Mar 2014Monterrey 3 - 2 Atlante
6 Oct 2013Atlante 2 - 1 Monterrey
4 Feb 2013Atlante 3 - 1 Monterrey
19 Aug 2012Monterrey 1 - 1 Atlante
Atlante have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.

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This should be an open game: we make it around 2.9 goals between the two (xG 1.5-1.4), landing about 56% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
Match outlookOver 2.5 goals · 1.59Share
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