How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Monterrey to score 2 or fewer 83%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Atlante host Monterrey at their home ground on 26 September in a Liga MX clash that could move both clubs a step up the table. Atlante sit 14th of 18 with eight points from nine games and a –5 goal difference, just one point above them is Atlético de San Luis and one point below them is Necaxa. Monterrey are a little higher, 10th with 13 points from eight games and a +4 goal difference, sandwiched between Atlas above and Pachuca below. Both sides are looking to climb, but the gap between them is small and a win would tighten the mid-table race.
Atlante have struggled to find form in their last eight matches, managing only one win, five draws and two defeats. Their most recent result was a 1-1 draw away at Puebla. Before that they fell 3-0 at home to Pachuca, then drew 1-1 away at Atlas, 1-1 at home to León, lost 2-0 away to Tigres UANL and held Toluca to a goalless draw at home. In those eight games they have scored seven goals and let in eleven. They have kept just one clean sheet and have failed to score in three matches. The last four home outings have yielded no wins – three draws and one loss.
Monterrey’s last eight fixtures show a more mixed picture with four wins, one draw and three losses. Their latest game was a 1-0 victory over Cruz Azul at home. Prior to that they drew 0-0 with Tigres UANL at home, then lost 3-1 at home to Atlético de San Luis, were beaten 2-0 away by León, and enjoyed big wins of 6-1 over Juárez at home and 2-0 away at Atlas. On the road they have one win and two defeats in the last three trips. Across the eight games they have scored 14 and conceded 10, kept three clean sheets and have been shut out twice. Their most recent outing was six days ago.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have been lively. In the last four meetings Atlante have won twice, Monterrey once and there has been one draw, with an average of 3.5 goals per match. The most recent encounter was back in March 2014 when Monterrey edged Atlante 3-2. Given the history of open games and both sides’ recent scoring records, we can expect another match with several goals, though neither team is likely to dominate completely.
Our pick is Monterrey to score two or fewer goals. We expect Monterrey to finish around 1.4 goals, and the chance of them staying under the two-goal mark is about 83 %. The price of 1.26 is longer than our reading of the game, so it looks attractive. For the bet to fail Monterrey would need to find the net three times or more, which would require a very open display from both sides – something that has happened before but is less likely given their recent defensive work. We feel the price is worth taking.
Recent results
Atlante have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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