Club Tijuana v Atlas: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Atlas to score 1 or fewer 75%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Club Tijuana host Atlas at their home ground on 26 September in a Liga MX clash that could tighten the top half of the table. Tijuana sit fourth with 15 points from nine games and a modest +2 goal difference, just two points ahead of América and level on points with Cruz Azul below them. Atlas are sixth, also on 15 points but from ten games and with a –2 goal difference, level on points with Cruz Azul and one point above Querétaro. Both clubs are fighting for a better position in the playoff race, and a win for either side would move them a step closer to the coveted top-four spots.

Tijuana’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight matches they have won three, drawn two and lost three, a stretch that includes a 2-2 draw away at Pachuca, a 1-0 home defeat to Querétaro, another 1-0 loss to the same side, a 2-0 home victory over UNAM Pumas, a 5-2 away loss to Guadalajara Chivas and a 2-1 home win over Cruz Azul. The run has produced nine goals for and ten against, with three clean sheets and three games in which they failed to find the net. They have now gone three games without a win, and the last five home outings show three wins and two defeats.

Atlas have not been any more consistent. Over their previous eight games they have recorded two wins, three draws and three losses. Their latest results are a 1-1 home draw with UNAM Pumas, another 1-1 draw with the same side, a 5-2 away loss to Toluca, a repeat 5-2 defeat to Toluca, a 1-1 home draw with Atlante and a 3-1 home loss to Querétaro. The team arrive on the back of two consecutive draws and have won only one of their last three away games. In this spell they have scored 12 and let in 17, keeping just one clean sheet, and most matches have featured three or more goals with both sides scoring in seven of the eight games.

When the two clubs meet, the games tend to be open and produce goals. In their last five meetings each side has won twice with one draw, and the encounters have averaged three goals a game. The most recent meeting saw Atlas edge Tijuana 2-1 in March. Given the similar recent scoring patterns and the fact that both teams have been involved in high-scoring affairs, we can expect another game with several chances on both ends, but nothing that guarantees a flood of goals from either side.

Our pick is Atlas to score one goal or fewer. The numbers suggest Tijuana are the stronger attacking side, with an 83 % chance to score at all and a 51 % chance to hit twice, while Atlas only have a 62 % chance to find the net and a 25 % chance to score two or more. We think Atlas will struggle to break down a Tijuana side that, despite recent setbacks, still manages to keep the opposition’s tally low at home. The price of 1.39 looks generous for this outcome, and we estimate a 75 % chance it will happen. For the pick to fail, Atlas would need to score at least two goals, which would require a sharper attack than their recent form has shown.