How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Atl. San Luis to score 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Club León host Atlético San Luis at home on 15 September in a Liga MX clash that could tighten the middle of the table. León sit sixth out of eighteen with 13 points from eight games and a modest +2 goal difference. Just above them sits Querétaro with the same points, while Tijuana sit directly below with no gap. San Luis are down near the bottom in sixteenth place, holding six points and a –7 goal difference. Atlante sit a spot above them with one point more, and Santos Laguna are two points behind. Both clubs are looking to improve their positions, but the stakes are different – León are fighting to stay in the top half, while San Luis need points to avoid slipping further.
León’s recent form has been a mix of wins and losses. In their last eight matches they have won four, drawn one and lost three, scoring eight and conceding eight. The most recent results are a 3-1 defeat away at Pumas, a 1-0 home win over América, a 2-0 loss away to Toluca, a 1-1 draw away at Atlante, a 2-0 home victory over Monterrey and a 2-1 away win at Necaxa. At home they have been perfect in the last three games, winning all three. They have kept three clean sheets in this run but have also failed to score in two matches. Only two of the eight games have produced three or more goals, and both sides have scored in three of those high-scoring encounters.
San Luis have been less consistent. In their last eight outings they have won two, drawn three and lost three, scoring ten and letting in fifteen. Their recent scores are a 3-0 home loss to Guadalajara, a 4-2 home win over Cobreloa, another 3-0 home defeat to Chivas, a 3-1 away win at Monterrey, a 1-1 home draw with Pachuca and a 3-0 away loss to Club América. On the road they have one win, one draw and one loss in the last three trips. They have kept only one clean sheet and have failed to find the net in four games. Six of those eight matches have seen three or more goals, and both sides have scored in four of them. Their most recent game was nine days ago.
When the two clubs meet, León have usually had the upper hand. In the last five meetings León have won four times and San Luis only once, with no draws. Those games have averaged 1.8 goals. The latest encounter was on 22 March, when San Luis lost 1-2 at home to León. The history suggests a game where León are likely to score, but there is still a decent chance that San Luis can get on the scoresheet, especially given the average goal tally in their meetings.
We think Atlético San Luis to score is the best choice. Our expectation is that the match will see about 2.9 goals in total, with León at 1.6 and San Luis at 1.3. The chance of San Luis finding the net is about 69 per cent, and the price of 1.39 matches our view of the game. For this to fail, San Luis would have to be shut out, which would require a very tight defensive display that they have not often produced this season. If they manage even a single goal, the pick should pay off.
Recent results
Club Leon have won four of the last five meetings.
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