How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Juarez to score 1 or fewer 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Santos Laguna host Juárez on a September evening in Liga MX. The home side sit 17th out of 18, four points clear of the bottom-placed Juárez but still two points behind Atlético de San Luis in 16th. Both clubs are fighting to avoid the last-place slot, and a win for either side would move them a step up the table while pushing the other further down. The numbers suggest an open game with chances at both ends, and Santos Laguna look the stronger side on paper.
Santos Laguna have struggled to find form in their last eight outings, managing only one win and one draw while losing six. Their most recent result was a 1-0 defeat away to Cruz Azul, followed by a goalless draw at home against Tigres UANL. Before that they fell 3-2 to Puebla away, lost 1-0 to Guadalajara Chivas at home, were beaten 3-0 by Club America away and 1-0 by Atlas at home. In those eight games they have scored seven goals and let in twelve, keeping two clean sheets but failing to find the net in five matches. Their four home games in the same spell have produced one win, one draw and two defeats.
Juárez arrive on a run of seven straight losses, having won only once in their last eight matches. Their latest outing was a 2-0 loss at home to Pachuca, preceded by a 4-0 defeat away to Toluca. Earlier they went down 2-1 to Club America at home, suffered a 6-1 loss away to Monterrey, were beaten 5-1 by UNAM Pumas at home and lost 1-0 to Guadalajara Chivas away. Over those eight games Juárez have scored five goals while conceding twenty-two, have failed to score in four matches and have been involved in five games with three or more goals, four of which saw both sides on the scoresheet.
In the recent history between the two clubs the balance has tilted heavily toward Juárez, who have won four of the last five meetings while Santos Laguna have not managed a victory, with one draw also recorded. Those five encounters have produced an average of 2.6 goals per game. The most recent clash on 18 January 2026 ended in a 2-2 draw, a game that featured goals from both sides and suggested an open, attacking contest.
Our pick is Juárez to score one goal or fewer. We expect the match to produce about three goals in total, with Santos Laguna averaging 1.7 and Juárez 1.3. The chance that Juárez keep to a single goal is around 70 percent, and the price of 1.49 matches our view of the game. For this bet to fail, Juárez would need to find the net twice, which would require a sudden lift in their scoring that has not been seen in their recent eight-game run. We think the price is fair and the likelihood of the outcome is high.
Recent results
Juarez have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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