What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Guadalajara Chivas and 1.1 from UNAM Pumas, so Guadalajara Chivas come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.8 goals between the two (xG 1.7-1.1), landing about 52% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.71, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Guadalajara Chivas are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓UNAM Pumas have won two of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
6 Apr 2026Guadalajara Chivas 2 - 2 UNAM Pumas
6 Oct 2025UNAM Pumas 1 - 2 Guadalajara Chivas
2 Mar 2025UNAM Pumas 0 - 1 Guadalajara Chivas
3 Nov 2024Guadalajara Chivas 0 - 0 UNAM Pumas
25 Feb 2024Guadalajara Chivas 3 - 1 UNAM Pumas
