How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Guadalajara Chivas to score 2 or fewer 76%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Guadalajara Chivas host UNAM Pumas at home in a Liga MX clash on 14 September 2026. Chivas sit top of the table, first of 18, with 17 points from eight games and a +9 goal difference. One place behind them sits Toluca, just a point shy. Pumas are down in tenth place with 11 points and a –1 goal difference, sandwiched between Pachuca a spot above and Monterrey a spot below. Both teams are looking to improve their positions, but Chivas have the clear advantage in the standings and the numbers suggest they are the stronger side.
Chivas have been in good form lately. In their last eight matches they have won five, drawn two and lost one. The most recent results are a 3-0 away win over Atl. San Luis, another 3-0 away win over San Luis, a 1-1 draw with Pachuca away, a 5-2 home win over Club Tijuana, a 1-0 away win over Santos Laguna and a 1-1 draw with Puebla away. They are coming into this game on two straight victories. At home in their last three games they have won two and lost one. In those eight games they have scored 15 and let in six, kept four clean sheets and were shut out only once. Three of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in three of them.
Pumas have been less consistent. Over their previous eight games they have won three, drawn two and lost three. Their latest results are a 3-1 home win over León, a 2-0 away loss to Club Tijuana, a 1-1 home draw with Necaxa, a 0-0 home draw with Queretaro, a 5-1 away win over Juarez and a 2-1 away win over Toluca. On the road in their last three outings they have won two and lost one. Across the eight games they have scored 12 and conceded 11, kept only one clean sheet and have failed to find the net in three matches. Five of those games saw three or more goals and both teams scored in all five. They played just three days ago, so they will be on a short turnaround.
The two clubs have met five times before. Chivas have won three of those meetings, Pumas have not won any and two have ended in draws. The games have averaged 2.4 goals. The most recent encounter was a 2-2 draw on 6 April 2026. Given the recent form and the low-scoring trend in their head-to-head matches, we expect a modest number of goals, especially from the home side.
Our pick is that Guadalajara Chivas will score two or fewer goals. The price of 1.45 is longer than our own reading of the game, but the chance of this outcome happening is about 76 out of 100. Chivas are expected to score 1.7 goals on average, and they have a high chance of finding the net at least once (82 %). The risk would be a sudden burst of goals from Chivas, which would push them over two, or a very tight defensive display from Pumas that limits Chivas to a single goal. If the game stays close to the recent average of 2.4 goals and Chivas keep to their usual scoring pattern, the bet should work.
Recent results
Guadalajara Chivas have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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