How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Puebla to score 1 or fewer 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Puebla host Toluca at home on 16 September in a Liga MX clash that could shift the table a little. Puebla sit eighth out of eighteen with 13 points from eight games and a neutral goal difference. Toluca sit top with 19 points and a +12 goal difference, two points clear of Chivas behind them. Both teams have played a match in the last few days, so the fixture comes on a short turnaround for each side. The stakes are modest – a win would keep Puebla in the middle of the pack while Toluca would look to stretch their lead at the summit.
Puebla’s recent form is a mixed bag. In their last eight games they have won four, drawn one and lost three. The most recent results are a 1-0 win away at Necaxa, a 2-0 defeat away to Club America, a 3-2 home victory over Santos Laguna, a 3-2 win away at Pachuca, a 1-1 home draw with Chivas and a 2-1 loss away to Cruz Azul. At home in the last three matches they have one win, one draw and one loss. Over those eight games Puebla have scored 11 and let in 11, keeping two clean sheets and failing to find the net once. Four of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them.
Toluca arrive on the back of an unbeaten run that stretches to seven wins and one draw in their last eight outings. Their latest results are a 5-2 home win over Atlas, another 5-2 victory over Atlas, a 2-0 home win against Monterrey, a 2-0 triumph over León, a 4-0 home win over Juárez and a 2-1 away win at Querétaro. They have not lost in this spell. In those eight games Toluca have scored 23 and conceded only six, keeping four clean sheets and being held scoreless once. Five of the matches produced three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them. Like Puebla, Toluca played just a few days earlier, giving them little rest before travelling.
The two clubs have met five times recently. Toluca have the edge with three wins, two draws and no victories for Puebla. Those meetings have produced an average of 2.8 goals per game. The most recent encounter was a goalless draw on 31 January, with Puebla failing to score at home. Given Toluca’s prolific scoring and Puebla’s modest output, we expect a low-scoring affair for the home side.
Our pick is Puebla to score one goal or fewer. We think Puebla will finish with at most a single goal, which we estimate has a 77 % chance of happening. The price on offer is 1.38, which is longer than our own reading of the game, so it looks attractive. For the pick to fail, Puebla would need to find the net twice, which historically happens only about 23 % of the time. If Toluca keep up their strong defensive record and limit Puebla’s chances, the bet should hold.
Recent results
Toluca have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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