What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Le Mans and 1.5 from Toulouse, so Le Mans come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.7-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 60%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Le Mans have won one of their last five.
✓Toulouse have won one of their last five.
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