How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Lens (Draw No Bet) 81%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Troyes and 2.0 from Lens, so Lens come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Troyes come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Lens (Draw No Bet). Lens are favoured here (xG 1.0-2.0), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Lens defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Lens have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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