What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Troyes and 2.1 from Lens, so Lens come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Troyes come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Lens to win. Lens shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-2.2), and we make them about 64% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.77, which works out at about 56 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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