How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Strasbourg and 2.1 from Paris SG, so Paris SG come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Strasbourg come into this on two straight defeats. Paris SG come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.4 goals between the two (xG 1.3-2.1), landing about 61% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Paris SG have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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