How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Lille to win 54%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Lille and 1.0 from Brest, so Lille come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Lille to win. Lille are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.0), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.02, which works out at about 50 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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