What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Houston Dynamo and 1.2 from FC Cincinnati, so Houston Dynamo come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FC Cincinnati to score. This is about FC Cincinnati's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.2 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 70%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Houston Dynamo have won two of their last five.
✓FC Cincinnati have not won any of their last five.
✓Two of the last three meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last three meetings.
Recent meetings
26 Feb 2023FC Cincinnati 2 - 1 Houston Dynamo
4 Jul 2021Houston Dynamo 1 - 1 FC Cincinnati
7 Jul 2019FC Cincinnati 3 - 2 Houston Dynamo
