How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Minnesota United host Los Los Angeles Galaxy on September 20 in an MLS clash that could shift the middle of the table. Minnesota sit ninth of fifteen with 32 points from 26 games and a –5 goal difference. They are just a point behind Portland Timbers above them and two points ahead of San Diego FC below. Los Angeles sit eleventh with 30 points from 27 games and a –10 goal difference, level on points with San Diego FC above them and Austin FC below. Both clubs are trying to climb out of the lower half, so a win would tighten the race for the spots just above the relegation-free zone.
Minnesota’s recent form has been poor. In their last eight matches they have won once, drawn three times and lost four times. The most recent results are a 4-2 loss away to St Louis City, a 2-1 defeat at home to FC Dallas, a 5-4 loss away to Portland Timbers and a 3-3 draw at home with Orlando City. Before those they beat San Jose Earthquakes 5-1 away and lost 2-1 to Atlanta United at home. That string includes three straight defeats. In their last four home games they have not won, drawing twice and losing twice. Across those eight games they have scored 18 and let in 19, with six matches seeing three or more goals and both sides scoring in every game.
Los Angeles Galaxy have been a little steadier, picking up two wins, three draws and three losses in their last eight outings. Their latest fixtures are a 1-1 draw at home with Seattle Sounders, another 1-1 draw with the same side, a 3-0 defeat away to Vancouver Whitecaps, a 2-1 home win over New England Revolution, a 3-1 loss away to San Diego FC and a 2-2 draw away at CF Montreal. The Galaxy come into this match on two consecutive draws. Their last four road games have produced no wins, one draw and three defeats. In those eight games they have scored eight and conceded twelve, keeping only one clean sheet and failing to find the net twice. Four of the matches featured three or more goals and both teams scored in five of them.
The two clubs have met five times before. Minnesota have won once, Los Angeles three times and one game ended in a draw. Those meetings have produced an average of 4.2 goals per game, showing a tendency for open, high-scoring affairs. The most recent encounter was on April 5, when Los Angeles lost 1-2 at home to Minnesota. Given the recent goal-rich results for both sides and the fact that each team has a good chance of scoring – 85 % for Minnesota and 69 % for the Galaxy – we expect another game with chances at both ends.
Our pick is Under 4.5 goals. The expected total of about 3.1 goals fits comfortably under that line, and the price of 1.35 matches our view of the game. We think the most likely outcome is a modest scoring night, with Minnesota likely to find the net at least once and the Galaxy also to score, but not enough to push the total past four goals. The pick would go wrong if the match turns into a goal-fest like the 5-4 loss to Portland or the 5-1 win over San Jose, producing five or more goals. Even then the odds of that happening are low, so we feel confident in the under.
Recent results
Los Angeles Galaxy have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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