What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from St. Louis City and 1.3 from Toronto FC, so St. Louis City come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.1 goals between the two (xG 1.9-1.3), landing about 62% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓St. Louis City are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓Toronto FC have won two of their last five.
Recent meetings
9 Jul 2023Toronto FC 0 - 1 St. Louis City
