How it turned out
We projected about 3.6 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Sporting Kansas City to score 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Sporting Kansas City host Philadelphia Union at home on 20 September 2026 in an MLS clash that could move the table. Kansas City sit bottom of the league, 15th out of 15, with 18 points from 25 games and a goal difference of minus 34. They are ten points behind Seattle Sounders, who sit just above them. Philadelphia sit sixth with 36 points from 26 games and a plus-8 goal difference, three points ahead of Chicago Fire and two points ahead of Orlando City. Both sides have something to prove: Kansas City need a point to avoid another long spell at the foot of the table, while the Union look to keep their push for a top-four spot alive.
Kansas City’s recent form has been poor. In their last eight matches they have managed only one win, one draw and six defeats. The most recent result was a 3-1 victory over Los Angeles FC at home, but before that they fell 4-3 to FC Dallas away, 3-0 to Vancouver Whitecaps at home and 2-1 to Atlanta United away. They also drew 1-1 with St Louis City at home and lost 2-0 to Colorado Rapids away. In those eight games they have scored eight goals and let in 19, failing to find the net in four matches. Five of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them.
Philadelphia Union arrive on a wave of confidence. In their last eight outings they have won six and drawn two, remaining unbeaten. Their most recent fixtures include a 5-0 away win at San Diego FC, two consecutive 5-0 home victories over FC Cincinnati, a 2-0 home win against CF Montreal, a 3-1 away triumph over New York Red Bulls and a 1-1 draw away at Austin FC. Across those eight games the Union have scored 26 goals while conceding only six, keeping four clean sheets. Their four most recent road matches have produced three wins and one draw, showing they can pick up points away from home.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have been tight. In the last five meetings Sporting Kansas City have won once, Philadelphia twice and two have ended in draws. The average scoreline has been two goals per game. The most recent encounter was a 1-1 draw at Kansas City on 3 March 2024. Given the Union’s attacking firepower and Kansas City’s defensive frailties, we expect another open contest with chances at both ends.
Our pick is Sporting Kansas City to score. We expect Kansas City to find the net about 70 % of the time and the price of 1.37 matches our view. The Union are likely to score, but Kansas City have shown they can put a goal past any defence, even in a run where they failed to score in half their games. The bet would fail if Kansas City are shut out, which could happen if the Union’s defence holds firm for the whole match. Otherwise we think a goal from the home side is the most likely outcome.
Recent results
Philadelphia Union have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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