Seattle Sounders v Real Salt Lake: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Seattle Sounders to score 2 or fewer 72%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Seattle Sounders host Real Salt Lake on September 24 in an MLS clash that could shift the bottom of the table. Both clubs sit on 29 points, with Seattle in 13th out of 15 and Real Salt Lake a spot above them in 12th. The gap between them and the teams around them is razor-thin – Minnesota United sit just below Seattle and Austin FC just above Real Salt Lake. A win for either side would give a small boost, but a loss could see them slip further toward the relegation-type zone.

Seattle have not won any of their last eight games, drawing four and losing four. Their most recent fixtures were a 1-1 draw away at Los Angeles Galaxy, a 0-0 home draw with New York Red Bulls, a 2-2 home draw with Chicago Fire and a 1-1 away draw with FC Cincinnati. Before that they fell 2-1 to Austin FC at home and 2-0 to Vancouver Whitecaps at home. In those eight matches the Sounders have scored six goals and let in eleven, keeping only one clean sheet and failing to find the net three times. Four of those games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five.

Real Salt Lake have endured a far tougher spell, losing seven of their last eight games and drawing only one. Their recent results include a 3-0 home loss to Vancouver Whitecaps, two consecutive 2-0 defeats at home to New York City FC, a 2-1 away loss to Houston Dynamo, another 2-1 away loss to Houston, and a 2-2 home draw with Los Angeles FC. They have scored five goals while conceding sixteen in this run, failing to score in half of the matches. Their last four road games have all ended in defeat, and they are coming into this tie after playing just four days ago.

In the five meetings that have taken place between the two clubs, Real Salt Lake have the edge with three wins, Seattle have one win and there has been one draw. Those games have averaged two goals each, suggesting a relatively low-scoring affair. The most recent encounter was a 2-1 victory for Real Salt Lake on March 1, 2026. Given the recent form of both sides, another tight game with few goals looks likely.

We think Seattle will score two goals or fewer. Our expectation for Seattle’s tally is about 1.5 goals, and the chance of them staying under three is high. The price of 1.33 matches our view of the game and looks attractive. For the pick to go wrong, Seattle would need to find the net three times, which our analysis puts at only about a 28 % chance. All signs point to a modest scoring night, and the price seems right for that outcome.