Carlisle v Woking: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 56%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Carlisle host Woking at their ground in the National League on 26 September 2026. Carlisle sit 16th out of 24 with ten points from nine games and a +2 goal difference. One point separates them from Boston United above and Barrow below. Woking are two places down in 18th, also on nine points but with a –2 goal difference. A win for either side could lift them a spot, while a loss would see them slip closer to the relegation zone. The two clubs have split their recent meetings, each winning once, and those games have averaged three goals, suggesting an open encounter.

Carlisle have not won in their last four matches. In their eight-game run they have two wins, four draws and two defeats. The most recent results are a 1-0 loss away at Eastleigh, a 1-1 draw at home with Forest Green, a 2-2 draw at home against Southend and a 2-1 defeat away to Boreham Wood. Before that they beat Scunthorpe 4-2 at home and drew 1-1 away at Wealdstone. In those eight games they have scored 14 and let in 11, failing to find the net only once. At home they have been unbeaten in four games, with two wins and two draws.

Woking’s form is similarly mixed. In their last eight outings they have recorded two wins, three draws and three losses. Their latest results are a 0-0 home draw with Kidderminster, a 1-1 away draw with Boston United, a 5-1 home victory over Altrincham and a 1-0 away loss to Hartlepool. Before that they drew 1-1 at home with Southend and fell 1-0 away to Hornchurch. Over those eight games Woking have scored ten and conceded nine, keeping only one clean sheet and failing to score in four matches. Their last four road games have produced no wins, one draw and three defeats.

When the two sides met last season the scorelines were 1-3 to Woking and a win for Carlisle in the earlier fixture, giving an average of three goals per game. Both clubs have shown they can both score and concede, and the recent goal tallies – Carlisle averaging 1.7 goals and Woking 1.1 – point to another open match. The chance of Carlisle scoring at all is high at 83 %, and they also have a decent chance of scoring twice or more. Woking will find the net in about two-thirds of their games and have a smaller chance of a double. All signs point to a game with several goals.

Our pick is over 2.5 goals. The price of 1.58 is shorter than we think the game deserves, making it attractive. We expect around 2.8 goals in total, which fits the historical average and the recent scoring patterns of both teams. For the pick to fail, both sides would need to keep a clean sheet or share a single goal, which seems unlikely given Carlisle’s 83 % chance to score and Woking’s 66 % chance. We feel the price is good and the odds of the over hitting sit at about 56 % in our view.