Southend v Barrow: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Barrow to score 1 or fewer 73%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.0 goals from Southend and 1.0 from Barrow, so Southend come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Southend come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Barrow to score 1 or fewer. This is about Barrow's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 73%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.