How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 4. We made Wealdstone to score 2 or fewer 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Wealdstone and 1.2 from Gateshead, so Wealdstone come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Wealdstone come into this on two straight defeats. Gateshead come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Wealdstone to score 2 or fewer. This is about Wealdstone's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 72%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Gateshead have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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