Ballymena United v Carrick Rangers: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Carrick Rangers to win 37%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Ballymena United host Carrick Rangers at home in a NIFL Premiership clash on 15 September. Ballymena sit ninth out of twelve, four points from five games and with a goal difference of minus one. They are already in the relegation places, three points behind Glentoran above them and only one point ahead of Limavady below. Carrick Rangers are sixth, nine points from six games and a goal difference of plus one. They sit one point behind leaders Larne and level with Crusaders just below them. Both teams are close on the numbers – Ballymena average 1.5 goals per game and Carrick 1.4 – so the match could be tight, but the stakes are different. Ballymena need points to climb out of the drop zone, while Carrick aim to keep pressure on the teams above them.

When the two sides have met before the games have been close affairs, with each side finding the net regularly. The goal averages suggest a game with a couple of goals in total, and both clubs have a similar chance of scoring – about 76-77 per cent – and a similar chance of scoring twice or more, around 43 per cent. That balance points to a contest where either side can break the deadlock, but the slight edge in league position and form belongs to Carrick Rangers.

Our pick is Carrick Rangers to win. The price of 2.60 matches our own reading of the game. We see Carrick as the better bet on the road, and the numbers give them about a 39 per cent chance to take all three points. The price looks good for that likelihood. For the pick to go wrong, Ballymena would need to find a second goal and hold on, or the home side would have to improve their finishing dramatically. If the match stays tight and Carrick manage just one goal, the price still pays handsomely. We think backing Carrick outright is the straightforward way to go.