Limavady v Bangor: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Limavady to win 43%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.2 goals from Limavady and 1.1 from Bangor, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Limavady to win. Limavady are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.1), and we make them about 44% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 43 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.82, which works out at about 55 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.