How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Crusaders to win 41%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Crusaders host Dungannon Swifts at home in the NIFL Premiership on 15 September. Crusaders sit seventh out of twelve, with nine points from six matches and a goal difference of minus two. They are sitting in the relegation zone, just one point behind Carrick Rangers and two points ahead of Glentoran. Dungannon Swifts are much higher up the table, fourth with twelve points from six games and a plus-four goal difference. They sit level on points with Cliftonville above them and two points clear of Larne below. Both sides will be keen to move their positions – Crusaders need points to climb out of danger, while Swifts will look to keep pressure on the teams chasing European places. The numbers suggest an open game with chances at both ends, and the price for a Crusaders win is 3.40, longer than we feel the match warrants.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to produce goals on both sides. The statistical outlook shows Crusaders averaging 1.8 goals and Swifts 1.5, indicating a fairly balanced attack. The chance of Crusaders finding the net at least once is 82 %, while Swifts have a 78 % chance of scoring. Both teams also have a decent probability of scoring twice – 51 % for Crusaders and 44 % for Swifts. This suggests we can expect an open contest with both sides creating opportunities. The expectation of roughly three goals in total fits the pattern of past meetings, where neither side has dominated defensively.
Our pick is a Crusaders win. The price of 3.40 is longer than our own reading of the game, which sees Crusaders as the stronger side on the numbers. We give them about a 41 % chance of coming out on top, roughly a 43 % win probability when you factor in the goal expectations. The price therefore looks attractive for a side that, despite being in the relegation zone, has a slightly higher expected goal output than the Swifts. For our prediction to go wrong, Dungannon Swifts would need to keep a clean sheet and score at least once, or Crusaders would have to fail to score at all – both outcomes are less likely given the scoring probabilities. In our view, backing Crusaders to win is the cleaner play compared with chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
Recent results
Dungannon Swifts have won three of the last five meetings.
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