How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Larne to win 61%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Larne and 0.8 from Cliftonville, so Larne come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Larne come into this on three straight wins. Cliftonville come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Larne to win. Larne are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.8), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.65, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Larne have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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